Inventors are naturally optimistic. When you create a new idea or product, you want it to succeed. But that same passion can lead to confirmation bias, a mental shortcut where you interpret data in a way that confirms what you already believe. Below, we explore why this matters for inventors and how to guard against it.
1. What Is Confirmation Bias?
- Expectations Shape Interpretations
When you “know” something should turn out a certain way—like a product that must work—it’s easy to favor evidence that supports your belief. - Filtering Out Contradictions
You might ignore or downplay any data that contradicts your assumptions, leading to overly rosy conclusions.
2. Why It Matters for Inventors
- Market Research
When testing demand for a new product, confirmation bias can skew survey design, data analysis, and even how you interpret feedback. - Product Testing
If you expect your prototype to be successful, you might overlook flaws or user complaints that don’t fit your narrative.
3. Counteracting Confirmation Bias
- Adopt a Skeptical Mindset
Remind yourself: I want this to succeed, so I might overestimate its potential. - Seek Opposing Opinions
Encourage colleagues, potential customers, or advisers to challenge your assumptions. Invite negative feedback to balance your natural optimism. - Use Blind Tests
In product testing, remove yourself from direct interaction with test subjects. Have a third party administer tests, so participants don’t feel pressured to please you. - Lean Toward “It Won’t Work”
You already have a personal stake in success. Balance that with a deliberate attempt to disprove your hypothesis. If it still holds up under scrutiny, you can be more confident in your findings.
4. Embrace Continuous Learning
Staying alert to confirmation bias is an ongoing process. Even the most seasoned inventors can fall into the trap of seeing only what they want to see. Remain open to data, whether it supports or refutes your initial assumptions.
Want More Details?
Check out the accompanying Innovation Cafe video, where Gary Shuster illustrates how confirmation bias can impact your inventions—and how to keep it in check.